1 in 5 Amazon Prime members are considering moving to Walmart+

1 in 5 Amazon Prime members are considering moving to Walmart+

In September Walmart debuted its $98 annual subscription service that offers unlimited same-day delivery and discounts at gas stations. The service, called Walmart+, is a direct competitor to Amazon Prime, which cost $119 per year.

Fortune and SurveyMonkey conducted a poll in July prior to the Walmart+ launch and found 27% of Americans were likely to subscribe.

But are those subscribers starting to materialize? To find out, Fortune and SurveyMonkey polled 2,098 U.S. adults between November 9 and 10.*

In the months since it launched, 3% of U.S. households have signed up for Walmart+. So it’s still far off before it can seriously threaten Amazon Prime, which has subscribers in 66% of U.S. households.

But more sign-ups are on the way. Among U.S. adults, 21% say they’re likely to subscribe to Walmart+, while 19% of Amazon Prime subscribers say they’re likely to sign-up for Walmart’s offering. That could cost Prime memberships. After-all why would someone pay for two free shipping services?

The Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll finds that the more often Americans shop in-store at Walmart, the more likely they are to sign up for Walmart+. Among U.S. adults who shop at Walmart every week, 42% have either subscribed to Walmart+ (7%) or are likely to (35%). If Walmart can continue to convert these frequent in-store shoppers into subscribers, it could grow a user base well into the tens of millions. 

Walmart has poured billions into building its global e-commerce business: From its $3.3 billion purchase of Jet.com in 2016 to acquiring a stake in Indian e-commerce giant Flipkart for $16 billion in 2018. And those investments—especially in the U.S.—are starting to pay dividends. Since the start of the pandemic, 41% of U.S. adults say they’ve ordered online from Walmart. Only Amazon, at 79%, has more Americans ordering from it during the crisis.

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In the U.S. alone, online sales netted Walmart and Sam’s Club stores $20.1 billion through the first six months of 2020. That’s up 70% from the same period a year prior. International Walmart sales climbed 22% to $6.2 billion during the same period. And while it’s too soon to tell whether converting in-person shoppers into Walmart+ subscribers will undercut the company’s in-store sales, the boom in e-commerce has certainly translated into wealthier Walmart shareholders. Shares of Walmart (WMT) traded at $148.18 at the close of trading Thursday, a gain of 24.6% year-to-date.

*Methodology: The Fortune-SurveyMonkey poll was conducted among a national sample of 2,098 adults in the U.S. between November 9 and 10. This survey’s modeled error estimate is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The findings have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography.

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This is an excerpt from Fortune Analytics, an exclusive newsletter that Fortune Premium subscribers receive as a perk of their subscription. The newsletter shares in-depth research on the most discussed topics in the business world right now. Our findings come from special surveys we run and proprietary data we collect and analyze. Sign up to get the full briefing in your inbox.

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