It’s been a rough few weeks for the polling industry—one that has seen the very profession of polling publicly scrutinized and dissected in the wake of yet another disappointing presidential election. After failing to predict Donald Trump’s shocking rise to the presidency in 2016, most polls got it wrong yet again this year. Though Joe Biden’s victory over Trump turned out to be correct, on a national level, once all the votes are counted, it’s clear that the 2020 election did not yield the Democratic landslide many forecasted.
Polling website RealClearPolitics’ national average, which aggregates and factors the results of polls nationally, forecast a 7.2-point lead for Biden going into the election; in reality, the actual margin of Biden’s popular vote victory will likely come in at half that spread. In Wisconsin, where some polls predicted a double-digit winning margin for Biden, the Democrat ended up winning by only 0.7%, … Read the rest