It’s gospel among Trump supporters that public polls systematically understate the millions of Americans who will vote for the president on November 3. If that’s the case, then the probability President Trump will prevail should advance to 50-50, or even show him in the lead, if he’s still trailing but pulls within a couple of points of Joe Biden.
One way to test the “if Trump gets close he wins” hypothesis is to examine whether the odds on political betting sites do indeed rate the contest a toss-up when Trump goes from lagging by a furlong to within a few meters, turning what looks like a romp into a horse race. That data could provide a guide to how much of the current gap the president must close to get a good shot at victory on Nov. 3.
The odds offered on the betting sites are arguably the … Read the rest