New coronavirus cases are increasing in all but 5 states

New coronavirus cases are increasing in all but 5 states

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It’s no time for pandemic fatigue.

With cold weather setting in and Americans preparing to head to the polls en masse in less than two weeks, the nation’s coronavirus map reflects a worrying picture. According to a Fortune analysis of New York Times data, new cases are increasing almost everywhere—in all but five states (Hawaii, Maine, Vermont, Delaware, and New Hampshire) and the District of Columbia.

Twenty five states are reporting at least 200 more cases per day on average than they were two weeks ago. Two states, Illinois and Texas, are seeing more than 1,000 more new cases per day in that time. In another eight—mostly, in the Upper Midwest including Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Wisconsin—the average number of new cases per day has increased by more than 500 per day. Those trajectories, along with rising and record hospitalization rates in many states, have led some experts to label this as the country’s “third surge.”  (The first surge having started in late March and the second in July, when the nation recorded more than 77,000 new cases in one day; yesterday, the country reported roughly 60,600.)

While these rising rates haven’t been met with the sort of broad, shelter-in-place measures implemented earlier this year—and which are currently going back into effect in some places in Europe—restrictions on things like indoor dining and party bus use are being tried in some areas.

Hawaii is the only state where the average number of new cases per day is decreasing.

While the nation’s rising case numbers reflect, in part, more testing, the average 7-day positivity rate in many states—37 of them—is well above the 5% figure that the World Health Organization in May described as “too high” for governments to consider reopening. Twelve states, led by Indiana, with an average positivity rate of 41%, have rates above 15%.

States in the Northeast make up most of those with positivity rates below 2%.

State-by-state breakdown of daily new cases

Numbers based on a seven-day averages.

State Oct. 14 new cases Oct. 20 new cases Change
Alabama 989 1,048 59
Alaska 151 198 48
Arizona 536 884 348
Arkansas 759 896 137
California 3,198 3,354 157
Colorado 582 1,079 496
Connecticut 273 394 121
Delaware 134 133 -1
District of Columbia 50 54 4
Florida 2,222 3,091 869
Georgia 1,211 1,441 230
Guam 54 89 35
Hawaii 93 81 -13
Idaho 519 738 219
Illinois 2,045 3,856 1811
Indiana 1,136 1,798 661
Iowa 811 1,096 285
Kansas 589 784 195
Kentucky 831 1,109 278
Louisiana 517 634 117
Maine 33 30 -3
Maryland 555 627 72
Massachusetts 625 722 97
Michigan 1,000 1,872 872
Minnesota 1,042 1,565 523
Mississippi 577 769 192
Missouri 1,479 2,056 577
Montana 401 646 244
Nebraska 530 838 308
Nevada 478 673 195
New Hampshire 71 78 7
New Jersey 682 1,016 333
New Mexico 256 598 342
New York 1,325 1,397 72
North Carolina 1,722 2,045 323
North Dakota 423 774 351
Northern Mariana Islands 1 2 1
Ohio 1,199 2,002 803
Oklahoma 1,018 1,151 133
Oregon 293 337 44
Pennsylvania 1,005 1,474 468
Puerto Rico 467 586 119
Rhode Island 149 241 93
South Carolina 762 944 182
South Dakota 411 731 320
Tennessee 1,485 2,053 568
Texas 4,338 5,365 1028
Utah 1,045 1,260 215
Vermont 10 10 0
Virgin Islands 0 1 1
Virginia 809 993 183
Washington 526 648 122
West Virginia 178 281 103
Wisconsin 2,449 3,394 946
Wyoming 136 223 88

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